The border challenge: Migration and the new Trump era

Donald Trump in his first term

The start of 2025 marks the return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States, bringing with it a new phase of immigration policies that are already creating tension along the border with Mexico. The promise to strengthen border security and reactivate projects like the expansion of the border wall resonates strongly in states such as Texas, Arizona, and California, where the economic and social implications are tangible.

On the Mexican side, border states such as Tamaulipas, Chihuahua, and Baja California will face an increase in migratory flow, driven by the mass deportations Trump is expected to implement immediately. By the end of 2024, the Biden Administration experienced an increase in migrant crossings, and this phenomenon could intensify with the tightening of policies.

For the governors of Mexico's border states, the main challenge will be maintaining order and social stability. In Tijuana, for example, shelters are already operating at full capacity, and uncertainty about the fate of deported migrants could lead to humanitarian problems. Added to this is the pressure the Mexican Government will face to cooperate with containment policies, which could provoke diplomatic tensions.

On the U.S. side, Texas and Arizona have expressed their intention to work closely with the federal government, but not without internal divisions. While conservative sectors support the "zero tolerance" strategy, the agricultural and construction industries fear labor shortages, vital to their local economies. This internal conflict could lead to legal disputes between the states and the federal government, reviving debates thought to be settled.

Migrants working in crops. Photo: Tim Mossholder

Trade will also face impacts. Strengthened inspections at ports of entry could slow the flow of goods, affecting supply chains that span both sides of the border. Cities such as Laredo and Ciudad Juárez heavily depend on this cross-border trade, and a setback in the fluidity of these operations could result in significant financial losses.

The immediate future points to a bilateral relationship marked by constant negotiation and real-time adjustments. Mexico finds itself in the dilemma of protecting its sovereign interests while seeking to maintain cooperation with its northern neighbor. Migration, far from being a unilateral problem, is shaping up to be a binational issue that will require dialogue, pragmatism, and, above all, political will from both sides.

Written by: Editorial

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