The USMCA: Catalyst for Jalisco's Trade

Since its implementation in July 2020, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has transformed Mexico’s foreign trade dynamics, particularly in states like Jalisco. This treaty has spurred significant growth in exports, solidifying Jalisco as one of the country’s main economic engines.

The impact of the USMCA is evident in the sustained increase in Jalisco's exports to the United States. According to recent data, these exports grew from $21.5 billion in 2019 to a projected $23.5 billion in 2024. Key sectors such as computer and electronics manufacturing, the beverage industry—led by tequila—and transportation equipment manufacturing have driven this growth.

Advantages and Challenges for Jalisco

The USMCA has not only created opportunities but also posed challenges for businesses in Jalisco. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which represent a significant portion of the state’s industrial base, face hurdles such as limited access to financing, a lack of skilled labor, and the high certification costs required to comply with treaty standards. Strengthening public policies to promote the internationalization of these businesses through technical assistance and training programs is crucial.

Meanwhile, the phenomenon of nearshoring—the relocation of supply chains to North America—presents an unprecedented opportunity. With its strategic location, skilled workforce, and competitive infrastructure, Jalisco is well-positioned to attract foreign direct investment. However, the region must enhance its logistics, digital connectivity, and specialized services to fully capitalize on this trend.

Emerging Sectors and Sustainability

In addition to traditional sectors, other areas with significant growth potential are emerging in Jalisco. Technology, services, and renewable energy represent new opportunities to diversify the state’s export offerings. Sustainability must also be a priority. The USMCA, with its environmental and labor provisions, provides a framework for Jalisco’s businesses to adopt more responsible practices.

Projections for 2025

Jalisco's exports are expected to continue their upward trend, with an estimated 5% growth in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by the consolidation of key sectors. The technology sector, led by computer and electronics manufacturing, will remain a cornerstone, benefiting from the global demand for advanced devices and innovative technological solutions.

The beverage industry, particularly tequila, will continue to strengthen its position in the U.S. market, supported by international promotion strategies, favorable trade agreements, and the growing popularity of Mexican cuisine abroad. This sector is projected to increase its share of the state’s total exports, thanks to product diversification and the opening of new markets.

In transportation equipment manufacturing, recent investments in regional infrastructure and technology point to increased competitiveness, enabling Jalisco to expand its export network and capture a larger share of the North American automotive market. Additionally, the rise of electric vehicles could create significant opportunities for local manufacturers, especially in producing specialized components.

External factors, such as the stability of trade relations between Mexico and the United States, local economic policies, and global demand trends, will play a crucial role in export performance through 2025. Nevertheless, Jalisco is well-positioned to leverage its leadership in key sectors and continue its upward trajectory in international trade.

Toward a Promising Future

Bilateral trade between Jalisco and the United States not only drives the local economy but also strengthens cultural and political ties between the two regions. While the challenges are significant, the opportunities presented by the USMCA are equally substantial. With the right strategies, Jalisco can establish itself as a leader in international trade, ensuring sustainable and equitable growth for its citizens.

The key lies in leveraging existing strengths while investing in innovation, sustainability, and talent development. In this context, the USMCA is not just a trade agreement but a catalyst for Jalisco’s comprehensive development and a model for regional collaboration in the 21st century.

Written by: Editorial