Trump Returns: The Future of Mexico and the United States Hangs by a Thread

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States in 2025 marks a new chapter in the complex bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States. This development generates uncertainty and debate, with polarized opinions ranging from optimism to skepticism. In this context, it is crucial to separate myths from truths and analyze the economic and political implications of this new presidential term.

Myth 1: “Trump will seek to dismantle the USMCA”

Truth: Although Trump has criticized trade agreements in the past, during his first term (2017–2021), he promoted the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), leading to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This agreement remained in force and generated commercial growth among the three countries, with trilateral trade increasing by 6% annually between 2020 and 2024.

In 2025, Trump is likely to uphold the USMCA but may push to adjust clauses related to rules of origin and tariffs in key sectors such as automotive and agriculture. These actions aim to protect American jobs but could strain relationships with Mexico and Canada.

Myth 2: “Remittances will decrease due to immigration restrictions”

Truth: During his first term, Trump implemented strict immigration policies. However, these did not prevent Mexican migrants from sending record remittance amounts to their country. In 2020, remittances totaled $40.6 billion, a 10% increase compared to 2019. By 2024, this figure surpassed $60 billion, solidifying remittances as a vital source of income for millions of Mexican families.

In 2025, remittances are expected to remain robust, although they could face challenges stemming from stricter financial controls and more severe anti-immigration policies.

Myth 3: “The bilateral relationship will be defined by the border wall”

Truth: The border wall was a hallmark issue during Trump’s first term, but its real impact on the bilateral relationship is limited compared to economic issues. Between 2017 and 2021, approximately 727 kilometers of the border wall were constructed, although not financed by Mexican resources as Trump had promised. By 2025, border security will remain a central topic, but bilateral negotiations are likely to focus on broader commercial and migration issues.

Key Comparisons Between Terms

• Trade: During Trump’s first term, trade between Mexico and the United States grew by 5% annually, reaching $661 billion in 2020. By 2024, this figure exceeded $780 billion. While Trump may pursue renegotiations, trade will remain a cornerstone of the relationship.

• Foreign investment: U.S. investment in Mexico reached $39 billion in 2024, a 12% increase from 2020, driven by nearshoring. This trend is expected to continue growing in 2025.

• Migration: In 2024, the number of Mexican migrants detained at the U.S. southern border decreased by 15% compared to 2020, but migration will remain a politically sensitive issue.

Challenges for Binational Potential in 2025

1. Strengthening the USMCA: The stability of the USMCA depends on maintaining open and consistent dialogue between both countries. In sectors like energy, it is crucial to ensure fair market access for U.S. companies while Mexico safeguards its energy sovereignty. In manufacturing, supply chain integration must be strengthened to compete globally, particularly against Asia. Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and 5G require joint regulations to foster innovation and investment.

2. Cooperation on security: The fentanyl crisis poses an urgent challenge. Mexico and the U.S. must implement binational programs that include not only surveillance and seizures but also prevention, treatment, and education strategies in both countries. Additionally, a shared commitment to combating arms trafficking from the U.S. to Mexico is essential to curb violence in the region.

3. Adapting to climate change: Droughts and natural disasters affect both sides of the border. Joint projects for resilient infrastructure and the development of solar and wind farms in border areas could transform the region’s energy landscape. Additionally, initiatives to share desalination technologies could alleviate the water crisis.

4. Comprehensive migration policies: Establishing programs that allow migrant workers to access temporary visas quickly and securely is crucial. This would reduce irregular migration and benefit sectors such as agriculture and construction in the U.S. Furthermore, ensuring labor rights for migrants and providing access to education and healthcare for their families would strengthen ties between both nations.

Donald Trump’s second term brings significant challenges to the bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States but also offers opportunities. Under Claudia Sheinbaum’s leadership, Mexico has the potential to strengthen its regional position and leverage this juncture to closely collaborate with the U.S. in key areas. Sheinbaum’s ability to implement innovative and sustainable policies could be the driving force behind more balanced binational agreements.

Strategic collaboration between both governments is essential to confront the growing competition from Asian economies, particularly China, which seeks to expand its influence in Latin America. Joint projects in infrastructure, technology, and regional supply chain investments could solidify North America as a competitive economic force. Additionally, working together on environmental and energy initiatives will enhance both nations’ ability to tackle global challenges.

To achieve this, maintaining constant and respectful dialogue based on shared interests and a long-term vision for sustainable development is critical. Separating myths from truths not only helps to better understand this landscape but also identifies opportunities to build a stronger and more prosperous binational relationship.

Written by: Editorial