Trump Tariffs! Mexican Products on the Tightrope and Their Uncertain Future in 2025

The trade relationship between Mexico and the United States is a fundamental pillar for both economies but also a recurring source of tensions. One of the most controversial episodes was the tariff policy implemented by former President Donald Trump, which significantly impacted various sectors of the Mexican economy. This article examines how these measures affected Mexican products, the current outlook, and the challenges to developing their potential in 2025.

A Direct Hit to Bilateral Trade

In 2017, Trump imposed tariffs of up to 25% on products such as steel, aluminum, and certain agricultural goods from Mexico. This triggered an escalation of trade tensions that impacted not only Mexican exporters but also U.S. supply chains.

A clear example was the steel sector. In 2017, Mexico exported 2.7 million tons of steel to the United States, valued at approximately $3.2 billion. Following the imposition of tariffs, exports fell by 15% in 2018, slowly recovering to reach 2.5 million tons in 2023. However, the impact translated into significant losses for small and medium-sized producers who could not compete with the increased costs.

Agriculture: From Growth to Uncertainty

Another severely affected sector was agriculture. Avocados, an iconic Mexican export, faced threats of trade restrictions that, although not fully implemented, generated uncertainty. In 2017, avocado exports to the U.S. accounted for 78% of total production, but rising logistical costs and regulatory barriers reduced growth to 3% annually between 2018 and 2020, compared to 8% in previous years.

In contrast, products such as tomatoes and chili peppers showed greater resilience. By 2024, exports of these products reached a value of $4.8 billion, a 20% increase compared to 2017, thanks to bilateral agreements that limited the imposition of additional tariffs.

Manufacturing and Automotive: A Double-Edged Sword

The automotive industry, a cornerstone of the Mexican economy, faced considerable challenges. In 2017, vehicle exports to the United States accounted for 83% of total production, valued at $50 billion. While proposed tariffs were never fully implemented, uncertainty affected sector investment, which grew at an annual rate of 2% between 2018 and 2021, far below the 7% average recorded between 2010 and 2017.

In 2024, automotive exports reached $56 billion, but the costs of adapting to USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) rules of origin remain a challenge for the sector.

Impact on Technology, Medical Equipment, and Industrial Goods

Trade in machines and data processing units also faced barriers. In 2017, this segment generated exports worth $12 billion, but tariffs and regulatory restrictions reduced growth to 4% annually between 2018 and 2020. By 2024, exports reached $15 billion, showing slow recovery.

Medical instruments and devices, a critical sector during the pandemic, experienced consistent growth. In 2024, exports reached $7.5 billion, a 25% increase compared to 2017, driven by high demand in the United States.

Trade in industrial machinery and equipment, as well as wires and electrical cables, showed mixed results. In 2017, these products generated combined exports of $8 billion. By 2024, the figure rose to $10.2 billion, although additional costs from tariffs impacted net gains.

Consumer Goods and Transportation**

The sector for televisions, computers, and mobile devices, one of the most dynamic, saw a 30% increase in exports between 2017 and 2024, reaching $20 billion. However, global supply chains and U.S. tariffs complicated growth.

For motor vehicles used for freight transportation and tractor-trailers, exports grew from $8 billion in 2017 to $12 billion in 2024, thanks to steady U.S. demand and bilateral incentives that prevented higher tariffs.

Key Statistics: 2017 vs. 2024

-   Steel exports: 15% reduction between 2017 and 2018, with partial recovery in 2023.

-   Agricultural sector: Growth limited to 3% annually between 2018 and 2020, compared to 8% previously.

-   Automotive industry: 12% increase in export value between 2017 and 2024, but with slower annual growth rates.

-   Machines and data processing units: 25% growth between 2017 and 2024.

-   Medical instruments: 25% increase in the same period.

-   Freight transport vehicles: 50% increase between 2017 and 2024.

2025: Challenges and Opportunities

As 2025 approaches, Mexico faces significant challenges in realizing the potential of its products in the U.S. market:

Market Diversification: Mexico must reduce its dependence on the U.S., which represented 80% of its total exports in 2024. Expanding markets in Asia and Europe is key to mitigating risks.

Innovation and Technology: Adopting advanced technologies can enhance the competitiveness of Mexican products, particularly in sectors like automotive and agriculture.

Sustainability: U.S. consumers are increasingly demanding sustainable products. Green certifications and eco-friendly processes will be key differentiators.

Political Certainty: With the U.S. presidential elections on the horizon, Mexico must prepare for potential changes in trade policies. Maintaining bilateral dialogue will be essential.

Trump's tariffs marked a turning point for Mexican exports, creating challenges that persist today. However, they also offered key lessons on the importance of diversification, innovation, and adaptation to an uncertain trade environment. As President Claudia Sheinbaum recently highlighted, collaboration and strengthening bilateral relations will be crucial in overcoming these challenges. Sheinbaum stressed the importance of prioritizing equitable trade policies that benefit both small and medium-sized enterprises and major exporters, as well as reinforcing logistical infrastructure to ensure efficient trade flows.

In 2025, Mexico has the opportunity to establish itself as a global trade leader, provided it overcomes these challenges with strategy, foresight, and a focus on equity and sustainability in its trade relationships.

Written by: Editorial